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1 – 10 of over 1000Using the next-day and next-week returns of stocks in the Korean market, we examine the association of option volume ratios – i.e. the option-to-stock (O/S) ratio, which is the…
Abstract
Using the next-day and next-week returns of stocks in the Korean market, we examine the association of option volume ratios – i.e. the option-to-stock (O/S) ratio, which is the total volume of put options and call options scaled by total underlying equity volume, and the put-call (P/C) ratio, which is the put volume scaled by total put and call volume – with future returns. We find that O/S ratios are positively related to future returns, but P/C ratios have no significant association with returns. We calculate individual, institutional, and foreign investors’ option ratios to determine which ratios are significantly related to future returns and find that, for all investors, higher O/S ratios predict higher future returns. The predictability of P/C depends on the investors: institutional and individual investors’ P/C ratios are not related to returns, but foreign P/C predicts negative next-day returns. For net-buying O/S ratios, institutional net-buying put-to-stock ratios consistently predict negative future returns. Institutions’ buying and selling put ratios also predict returns. In short, institutional put-to-share ratios predict future returns when we use various option ratios, but individual option ratios do not.
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Mohammed M. Elgammal, Fatma Ehab Ahmed and David G. McMillan
The purpose of this paper is to consider the economic information content within several popular stock market factors and to the extent to which their movements are both explained…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to consider the economic information content within several popular stock market factors and to the extent to which their movements are both explained by economic variables and can explain future output growth.
Design/methodology/approach
Using US stock portfolios from 1964 to 2019, the authors undertake three related exercises: whether a set of common factors contain independent predictive ability for stock returns, what economic and market variables explain movements in the factors and whether stock market factors have predictive power for future output growth.
Findings
The results show that several of the considered factors do not contain independent information for stock returns. Further, most of these factors are neither explained by economic conditions nor they provide any predictive power for future output growth. Thus, they appear to contain very little economic content. However, the results suggest that the impact of these factors is more prominent with higher macroeconomic risk (contractionary regime).
Research limitations/implications
The stock market factors are more likely to reflect existing market conditions and exhibit a weaker relation with economic conditions and do not act as a window on future behavior.
Practical implications
Fama and French three-factor model still have better explanations for stock returns and economic information more than any other models.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature by examining whether a selection of factors provides unique information when modelling stock returns data. It also investigates what variables can predict movements in the stock market factors. Third, it examines whether the factors exhibit a link with subsequent economic output. This should establish whether the stock market factors contain useful information for stock returns and the macroeconomy or whether the significance of the factor is a result of chance. The results in this paper should advance our understanding of asset price movement and the links between the macroeconomy and financial markets and, thus, be of interest to academics, investors and policy-makers.
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Robin K. Chou, Kuan-Cheng Ko and S. Ghon Rhee
National cultures significantly explain cross-country differences in the relation between asset growth and stock returns. Motivated by the notion that managers in individualistic…
Abstract
National cultures significantly explain cross-country differences in the relation between asset growth and stock returns. Motivated by the notion that managers in individualistic and low uncertainty-avoiding cultures have a higher tendency to overinvest, this study aims to show that the negative relation between asset growth and stock returns is stronger in countries with such cultural features. Once the researchers control for cultural dimensions, proxies associated with the q-theory, limits-to-arbitrage, corporate governance, investor protection and accounting quality provide no incremental power for the relation between asset growth and stock returns across countries. Evidence of this study highlights the importance of the overinvestment hypothesis in explaining the asset growth anomaly around the world.
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Rebeca Cordeiro da Cunha Araújo and Márcio André Veras Machado
This study aims to analyze the influence of future expectations of the book-to-market ratio (B/M) and return on equity (ROE) in explaining the Brazilian capital market returns.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the influence of future expectations of the book-to-market ratio (B/M) and return on equity (ROE) in explaining the Brazilian capital market returns.
Design/methodology/approach
The study analyzed the explanatory power of risk-factor approach variables such as beta, size, B/M ratio, momentum and liquidity.
Findings
The results show that future expectations of the B/M ratio and ROE, when combined with proxies for risk factors, were able to explain part of the variations of Brazilian stock returns. With respect to risk factors approach variables, the authors verified the existence of size and B/M effects and a liquidity premium in the Brazilian capital market, during the period analyzed.
Research limitations/implications
This research was limited to the non-financial companies with shares traded at Brasil, Bolsa and Balcão, from January 1, 1995 to June 30, 2015. This way, the conclusions reached are limited to the sample used herein.
Practical implications
The evidences herein presented can also contribute to establishing investment strategies, considering that the B/M ratio may be calculated through accounting information announced by companies. Besides, using historical data enable investors, in a specific year, to calculate the predictor variables for the B/M ratio and ROE in the next year, which enhance the explanatory power of the current B/M, when combined in the form of an aggregate predictor variable for stock returns.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this study to the literature is to demonstrate how the expected future B/M ratio and ROE may improve the explanatory capacity of the stock return, when compared with the variables traditionally studied in the literature.
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Sang Won Lee, Su Bok Ryu, Tae Young Kim and Jin Q. Jeon
This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the…
Abstract
This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the authors define the timing of prepayment not only before the loan maturity but also at the time when 50% or more of the loan principal is repaid. The results show that, during the global financial crisis as well as the recent period of low interest rates, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate spreads and housing prices have a different effect compared to the normal situation. Also, significant explanatory variables, such as debt to income (DTI) ratio, loan amount ratio and poor credit score, have different effects depending on the macroenvironment. On the other hand, in all periods, the possibility of prepayment increases as comprehensive loan to value (CLTV) increases, and the younger the age, the shorter the loan maturity. The results suggest that, in the case of ultralong (40 years) mortgage loans recently introduced to support young people purchasing houses, the prepayment risk can be, at least partially, migrated by offsetting the increase in prepayment by young people and the decrease in prepayment due to long loan maturity. In addition, this study confirms that the accelerated time failure model compared to the logit model and COX proportional risk model has the potential to be more appropriate as a prepayment model for individual borrower analysis in terms of the explanatory power.
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Innocent Senyo Kwasi Acquah, Micheline Juliana Naude and Sanjay Soni
This study aims to demonstrate how integration is achieved in an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design by assessing the effect of collaborative cultural dimensions on supply…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to demonstrate how integration is achieved in an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design by assessing the effect of collaborative cultural dimensions on supply chain collaboration amongst firms in Ghana's downstream petroleum sector. Specifically, the study examined how collectivism, long-term orientation, power symmetry, as well as uncertainty avoidance influence supply chain collaboration. Besides, it also demonstrates how integration is achieved in an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design.
Design/methodology/approach
Using an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design, the study employed a partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) analysis of quantitative data (N = 166), followed by a thematic analysis of eight semi-structured interviews to explain how and why the dimensions of collaborative culture impact supply chain collaboration.
Findings
The quantitative findings suggest that three out of the four dimensions of culture significantly predict supply chain collaboration. Integrating the quantitative and qualitative findings suggests convergence between the results of the quantitative and qualitative phases of the study as the qualitative results compliment the quantitative findings and offer more nuanced understanding of the cultural mechanisms responsible for successful supply chain collaborations.
Practical implications
The findings provide managers in the downstream petroleum sector with insights into how and why the dimensions of collaborative culture influence supply chain collaboration. These managers should, therefore, build corporate cultures characterized with high levels of long-term orientation, power symmetry and uncertainty avoidance.
Originality/value
Owing to the role of culture in successful supply chain collaborations, this study, through a mixed-methods design, links the dimensions of collaborative culture with supply chain collaboration in the downstream petroleum sector. Moreover, it demonstrates how integration and complementarity are achieved at the study design, methods, as well as the interpretation and reporting levels of an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design.
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Isabel María Parra Oller, Salvador Cruz Rambaud and María del Carmen Valls Martínez
The main purpose of this paper is to determine the discount function which better fits the individuals' preferences through the empirical analysis of the different functions used…
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this paper is to determine the discount function which better fits the individuals' preferences through the empirical analysis of the different functions used in the field of intertemporal choice.
Design/methodology/approach
After an in-depth revision of the existing literature and unlike most studies which only focus on exponential and hyperbolic discounting, this manuscript compares the adjustment of data to six different discount functions. To do this, the analysis is based on the usual statistical methods, and the non-linear least squares regression, through the algorithm of Gauss-Newton, in order to estimate the models' parameters; finally, the AICc method is used to compare the significance of the six proposed models.
Findings
This paper shows that the so-called q-exponential function deformed by the amount is the model which better explains the individuals' preferences on both delayed gains and losses. To the extent of the authors' knowledge, this is the first time that a function different from the general hyperbola fits better to the individuals' preferences.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the search of an alternative model able to explain the individual behavior in a more realistic way.
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Guoqing Lu, Peng Dai and Xia Zhang
The purpose of this paper is to test the relationship between innovation performance and innovation spillover effects, innovation inputs, innovation outputs and industrial effects.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to test the relationship between innovation performance and innovation spillover effects, innovation inputs, innovation outputs and industrial effects.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis framework including variables such as innovation spillover effect, innovation input, innovation output and industrial effect was constructed. Through the investigation and analysis of the innovation activities of China’s GEM listed companies in 2014–2016, the innovation performance and the above factors were tested.
Findings
The research shows that enterprise performance has a significant positive correlation with innovation input and innovation output, but there is no significant correlation or even negative correlation with innovation environment and industry background such as government support and innovation opportunities, and the spillover effect is significant. The negative correlation is also negatively correlated with innovative human capital investment, company age and company Q.
Originality/value
Innovation is the real source of economic growth, and industrial innovation is the system integration of technological innovation, product innovation, market innovation, etc., which is the basic determinant of national competitiveness.
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This paper reviews the current literature on theoretical and methodological issues in discrete choice experiments, which have been widely used in non-market value analysis, such…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper reviews the current literature on theoretical and methodological issues in discrete choice experiments, which have been widely used in non-market value analysis, such as elicitation of residents' attitudes toward recreation or biodiversity conservation of forests.
Design/methodology/approach
We review the literature, and attribute the possible biases in choice experiments to theoretical and empirical aspects. Particularly, we introduce regret minimization as an alternative to random utility theory and sheds light on incentive compatibility, status quo, attributes non-attendance, cognitive load, experimental design, survey methods, estimation strategies and other issues.
Findings
The practitioners should pay attention to many issues when carrying out choice experiments in order to avoid possible biases. Many alternatives in theoretical foundations, experimental designs, estimation strategies and even explanations should be taken into account in practice in order to obtain robust results.
Originality/value
The paper summarizes the recent developments in methodological and empirical issues of choice experiments and points out the pitfalls and future directions both theoretically and empirically.
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Richard Arhinful and Mehrshad Radmehr
The study seeks to find the effect of financial leverage on the firm performance of non-financial companies listed in the Tokyo stock market.
Abstract
Purpose
The study seeks to find the effect of financial leverage on the firm performance of non-financial companies listed in the Tokyo stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
The study collected data from 263 companies in the automobile and industrial producer sectors listed on the Tokyo stock exchange between 2001 and 2021. The generalized method of moments was used to estimate the effect of leverage on financial performance due to its ability to overcome the problems of endogeneity and autocorrelation.
Findings
The study found that the equity multiplier has a positive and statistically significant effect on return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and earning per share (EPS). The study discovered that the interest coverage ratio has a positive and statistically significant effect on ROA, ROE, EPS and Tobin’s Q. The results revealed that the degree of financial leverage and debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) have a negative and statistically significant effect on ROE, EPS and Tobin’s Q. The study also found that the capitalization ratios of the firms have a negative and statistically significant effect on ROA, ROE, EPS and Tobin’s Q.
Practical implications
The use of debt financing, which presents financial leverage, indicates that the companies can make enough earnings to pay off the interest and principal (debt service obligations), which were shown by the interest coverage ratio, as well as to pay all the long-term fixed expenses, which were shown by the fixed charge coverage ratio. Interest and fixed charge coverage have a positive statistically significant effect on the financial performance of automobile and industrial producer companies.
Originality/value
The study focused on the effect of financial leverage on financial performance by relying on pecking and trade-off theories to contribute to the existing body of literature in finance.
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