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Article
Publication date: 14 September 2023

Olumide O. Olaoye and Mulatu F. Zerihun

The study examined the roles of fiscal and monetary policy in reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), while accounting for macroeconomic disruptions. In particular, the…

Abstract

Purpose

The study examined the roles of fiscal and monetary policy in reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), while accounting for macroeconomic disruptions. In particular, the study examined the complementarity of fiscal and monetary policy to mitigate shocks and reduce poverty in SSA.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts the fixed effect (within regression) model to account for country-specific characteristics, and a cross-sectional dependence – consistent model to control for the potential cross-sectional in panel data modelling. The study used the dummy variable approach to account for the macroeconomic shocks. The authors assigned 1 to the following years – 2008, 2014 and 2020; and 0 otherwise to take care of the global financial crisis, commodity terms of trade shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic respectively.

Findings

The study found that fiscal policy (particularly, government spending on health and education) has the greater capacity to reduce the level of poverty in SSA. The results also indicate that fiscal policy and monetary policy can work in tandem to reduce the negative effects of a pandemic. However, the study found an optimal threshold level of monetary policy beyond which monetary policy reduces the effectiveness of fiscal policy to reduce poverty in SSA. The research and policy implications are discussed.

Originality/value

The study, unlike previous studies, accounts for the impact of macroeconomic shocks in the monetary/fiscal policy and poverty literature.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Karlo Marques Junior

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

Findings

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

Originality/value

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 May 2024

Zenabu Mustapha, Paul Owusu Takyi, Raphael Edem Ayibor and Frank Adusah-Poku

The study examines the impact of fiscal policy shocks on economic growth and income inequality in Ghana. This has become necessary because of the interdependence between growth…

Abstract

Purpose

The study examines the impact of fiscal policy shocks on economic growth and income inequality in Ghana. This has become necessary because of the interdependence between growth and income inequality and the role fiscal policy plays in this relationship in the development process of a country. Thus, a study that investigates how government expenditure shock and tax revenue shock influence the relationship between economic growth and income inequality could assist policymakers to adopt the best policy mix to ensure income equity and sustained economic growth in Ghana.

Design/methodology/approach

It employs sacrifice ratio from structural VAR model using quarterly time series data from 1996 to 2019 on Ghana.

Findings

Our results show that government expenditure shock impacts economic growth, exchange rate and education positively and significantly in the long run. Also, tax revenue shock has a positive impact on income inequality, economic growth and education. The findings further show that there exists a trade-off between economic growth and income inequality in the long run.

Originality/value

The relationships between fiscal policy shocks, economic growth and income inequality have been extensively discussed among scholars. Understanding how these three macroeconomic variables are determined and their interrelationships are crucial for policymakers. This is because fiscal policy aids in both economic growth and income inequality. In the empirical literature, the emphasis has been on independently estimating the growth effects of fiscal policy or the distribution effects of fiscal policy, leaving out the existence of possible trade-off between economic growth and income inequality following a fiscal shock. To the best of our knowledge, no empirical study has been done on Ghana to empirically examine the trade-off between economic growth and income inequality as we do in this paper.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Zeqi Liu, Zefeng Tong and Zhonghua Zhang

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.

Findings

The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.

Originality/value

This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 May 2024

Asif Tariq, Shahid Bashir and Aadil Amin

India’s historical fiscal performance has featured elevated deficit levels. Driven by the imperative need for fiscal stimulus measures in response to the crisis, efforts toward…

Abstract

Purpose

India’s historical fiscal performance has featured elevated deficit levels. Driven by the imperative need for fiscal stimulus measures in response to the crisis, efforts toward fiscal consolidation from 2003 to 2008 were reversed in 2008–2009 due to the financial crisis. These stimulus actions are believed to have wielded a notable influence on inflation dynamics. Presumably, a high inflation rate hinders growth and inflicts severe welfare costs. Accordingly, the principal objective of this paper is to scrutinise the threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation within the context of the Indian economy.

Design/methodology/approach

We employed the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Model, a robust tool for capturing non-linear relationships, to discern the specific threshold level of fiscal deficit. Our analysis encompasses annual data spanning from 1971 to 2020. Additionally, we have leveraged the Toda-Yamamoto causality test to establish the existence and direction of a causal connection between fiscal deficit and inflation in the Indian economy.

Findings

Our analysis pinpointed a critical threshold level of 3.40% for fiscal deficit, a value beyond which inflation dynamics in India undergo a marked transition, signifying the presence of significant non-linear effects. Moreover, the results derived from the Toda-Yamamoto causality test offer substantiating evidence of a causal relationship originating from the fiscal deficit and leading to inflation within the Indian economic framework.

Research limitations/implications

The findings of our study carry significant implications, particularly for the formulation and execution of both fiscal and monetary policies. Understanding the threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation in India provides policymakers with valuable insights into achieving a harmonious balance between these two critical economic variables.

Originality/value

To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind to empirically investigate threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation in India from a non-linear perspective using the Smooth Transition Autoregression (STAR) model.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2023

Yu Li and Xiaoyang Zhu

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a fiscal expansion on private consumption and the real effective exchange rate.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses a sign-restriction method to identify a fiscal shock in the panel structural VAR analysis in the context of both developed and developing countries.

Findings

The authors’ find that (1) private consumption increases in response to a positive government spending shock in both groups, yet such consumption effect is greater in developing than industrial countries; (2) the response of real effective exchange rate to the government spending shock varies across groups: it depreciates in developed countries and appreciates in developing countries; (3) trade balance improves in both groups.

Originality/value

This study sheds light on the differential effects of fiscal shock on consumption and real exchange rate in both developed and developing economies.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 May 2024

Dirar Abdulhameed Alotaibi

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on some fiscal and monetary indicators in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on some fiscal and monetary indicators in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Design/methodology/approach

The research relied on data, studies and reports issued by the International Monetary Fund, Arab Monetary Fund, Saudi Central Bank, Investing Website and the World in Data Website.

Findings

Many sectors have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, which outbreak has been associated with a high cost, in addition to increased inflation and prices, a result that was confirmed by the increase in consumer price indices for different sectors. The general consumer price index for the second period rose above that of the first period, while an upward shift occurred in the curve depicting the Saudi Riyal exchange rate against the United States (US) dollar during the second period above that of the first period, only in slope, due to outbreak of the pandemic. Impact of the number of daily new cases infected with COVID-19 was the highest on the opening and closing price indices of the food retail sector, the pharmaceutical sector and the transportation sector; while impact of the number of daily deaths by COVID-19 was the highest on the opening and closing price indices of the banking sector, the general index and the investment and finance sector. In addition, impact of the daily reproduction rate of COVID-19 was the highest on the opening price indices of the energy sector, the food production sector and the transportation sector.

Research limitations/implications

The research aims to demonstrate measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through fiscal and monetary policies.

Practical implications

The COVID-19 pandemic is still an ongoing global pandemic. The virus was first identified in Wuhan City in China at the beginning of December 2019. At the end of January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the virus represented a public health emergency, and later, on March 11, 2020, WHO declared the situation had transformed into a pandemic. Until January 17, 2022, the pandemic had caused more than 328 million cases and 545 million deaths, while 188 million of the cases had recovered. It is worth mentioning that the pandemic caused several social and economic disruptions, including a global economic recession; shortages in goods, supplies and equipment due to consumers' panic and thus tendency to buy; besides causing other disruptions like the negative impacts on health, as well as political, cultural, religious and sport events that influenced economic policies, including both the fiscal and monetary policies of world countries (Wikipedia, 2022).

Social implications

Social implications steps that taken to reduce the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to measuring the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (as the main event next to which other events fade up) on some of the fiscal and monetary indicators for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Originality/value

The research aims to demonstrate measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to measuring the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (as the main event next to which other events fade up) on some of the fiscal and monetary indicators for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Details

Journal of Money and Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2596

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 April 2022

Arcade Ndoricimpa

This study reexamines fiscal deficit sustainability in South Africa.

Abstract

Purpose

This study reexamines fiscal deficit sustainability in South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The study applies three cointegration testing approaches, namely testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, time-varying cointegration test and asymmetric cointegration test.

Findings

The results point to the existence of a level relationship between government revenue and spending. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenue and spending in South Africa is found to be characterized by breaks. As such, assuming a constant cointegrating slope may be misleading. Results from time-varying cointegration and an estimation of a cointegrated two-break model indicate that cointegrating coefficient has been time-varying but has remained less than 1 for the entire study period, indicating that fiscal deficits have been weakly sustainable. This finding is also confirmed by the results from an estimated asymmetric error correction model.

Practical implications

In view of the findings, authorities should put in place policies to improve the fiscal budgetary stance and reinforce the sustainability of the fiscal deficits in South Africa. Among other things, South Africa could undertake reforms to state-owned companies to reduce their reliance on public funds, slow down the pace of the public sector wage growth and devise effective economic measures to boost long-term growth. In addition, tax compliance and other revenue collection measures should be enhanced for additional tax revenue.

Originality/value

The contribution of this study is twofold; first, the study uses a long series of annual data spanning over a century, from 1913 to 2020. Indeed, cointegration is better modeled using long spans of time series data. Second, to examine the existence of a level relationship between spending and revenue, the study uses cointegration tests which allow capturing time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient, and accounting for asymmetries in the relationship between government spending and revenue. It is important to allow for time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient, especially when it has been hardly treated in the empirical literature on fiscal deficit sustainability. Allowing for time-variation in the cointegrating slope coefficient helps us to analyze fiscal deficit sustainability by periods of time. Indeed, the degree of fiscal sustainability can change from one time period to another.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 November 2023

Yusuf Yildirim

This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.

Design/methodology/approach

The index is constructed using twelve distinct fiscal indicators and applying the portfolio method, which considers the time-varying cross-correlation structure between the subindices.

Findings

Dynamics of the fiscal vulnerability index indicate that it accurately predicts to the well-known fiscal crisis occurring in Türkiye's recent history. As a result, such a compound measure should be used in the early identification of fiscal vulnerability in Türkiye.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper, relative to existing papers, is that a fiscal vulnerability index was constructed by employing the most contemporaneous method and evaluating its performance in terms of capturing historical stress periods.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Eleni Dalla, Stephanos Papadamou, Erotokritos Varelas and Athanasios Argyropoulos

Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government…

Abstract

Purpose

Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.

Design/methodology/approach

Fiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.

Findings

Our findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.

Originality/value

In this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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