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This case follows the performance review and financial-statement-forecasting decisions of a Value Line analyst for the retail building-supply industry in October 2002. The case contrasts the strong operating performance of Home Depot with the strong stock-market performance of Lowe's. Students examine a financial ratio analysis for Home Depot that acts as a template to generate a comparable ratio analysis for Lowe's. The student ratio analysis is designed to build intuition with respect to interpreting individual ratios as well as ratio interrelationships (e.g., the DuPont framework). The historical-performance comparison suggests that investors are skeptical of the ability of Home Depot to maintain its performance trajectory, yet they project sustained improvements for Lowe's. Students are invited to scrutinize the analyst's five-year income-statement and asset-side balance sheet forecast for Home Depot. The case expressly focuses on the asset side of the balance sheet as a preview for other cases using free-cash-flow forecasting. The Home Depot forecast exercise exposes students to the mechanics of financial-statement modeling and sensitivity analysis, which they can use in building their own forecast for Lowe's. Finally, the strong-growth assumptions for Home Depot relative to the modest-growth forecast for the industry suggest that the company can be expected to capture massive and perhaps unreasonable market share in the near term. The exercise provides a striking example of the importance of comparing bottom-up business forecasting with top-down industry forecasts.

Teaching objectives are as follows: students need to understand the critical choices involved in introducing a product into a new market, including but not limited to the macroeconomic context, the target consumer segment, the positioning of the product, distribution channels, pricing and promotion strategy. Students must learn to appreciate the importance of anticipating the reaction of incumbents, and how such reactions may determine the success or failure of a new product entry into the market. Students develop skills to analyze complementarities between different distribution channels and understand how investments in developing one channel can result in positive or negative consequences in other channels.

How can health products such as multivitamins and other nutritional supplements make headway into emerging markets that are moving up the ranks of middle-income economies? This case study investigates the case of Thailand, a country that in the early 1990s registered a per capita income comparable to Vietnam and Laos and Cambodia today. It illustrates, through the real experience of Pat – an executive of a local subsidiary of an American multinational pharmaceutical company – how a new entrant exploited the rapidly changing economic and retailing environment to become a successful player in an important and growing segment of consumer products.

This case is suitable for master’s degree students or short-course executives.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS 11: Strategy.