A Probabilistic Approach to Food Security

Abstract

Purpose

We introduce a risk management framework to assess food security, which is interpreted as the probability of fatality or adverse health effects due to lack of food and which is a product of food availability, access, and vulnerability.

Methodology/approach

We derive cost-minimizing policies to achieve food security objectives by addressing availability, access, and vulnerability, and taking into account how randomness, uncertainty, and heterogeneity affect the system.

Findings

Ignoring key sources of variability, particularly heterogeneity, may lead to biases because food security policies require targeting the most vulnerable populations, which may each have unique features such as age, location, and health status. Establishing any policy solution requires making tough choices about policy criteria. Outcomes will differ when the criteria is to minimize overall risk or to minimize risk to the most vulnerable.

Social implications

Policies addressing food security crises should balance enhanced supply with targeting available food and the provision of emergency health services to vulnerable populations.

Citation

Zilberman, D. and Jin, Y. (2016), "A Probabilistic Approach to Food Security", Food Security in a Food Abundant World (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Vol. 16), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 33-53. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1574-871520150000016002