Israel will carefully calibrate its Iran retaliation

Significance

The assault caused almost no damage after a combined air defence including the United States and other allies intercepted nearly all the projectiles. Nonetheless, it was Iran’s first-ever direct assault on Israel (after a long ‘shadow war’ involving support for proxies and cyberattacks) and raised fears of a far wider Middle East conflict.

Impacts

• An emerging US-led Middle Eastern air-defence partnership may build on its now-proven capabilities.
• If a crisis over the ultra-Orthodox draft topples the government, Israeli foreign policy will become less predictable.
• Once the latest exchange with Iran winds down, global focus will return to Gaza, with further pressure on Israel to allow increased aid.