Israeli-Arab normalisation will freeze, not reverse

Significance

Deepening Gulf-Israel normalisation -- and particularly heavy US-backed efforts to advance a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia -- set the context for the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7, 2023. Indeed, concerns over that trend, and the related sidelining of the Palestinian cause, may have been a significant trigger for the assault.

Impacts

• Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will likely prioritise coalition stability over a strategic Israeli-Arab deal.
• Arab rulers will be increasingly suspicious of Hamas as its popular support rises, implicitly backing Israeli policy.
• Deliberate ambiguity in Israel’s Gaza war aims will further complicate negotiations over a regional end-game.