Reform UK could impact next election outcome

Significance

As Reform is polling nationally at 13% and has performed strongly in recent by-elections, the defection is a blow to the Conservatives' chances of retaining voters in former Brexit-supporting constituencies and threatens to erode further their support at the next general election.

Impacts

• The next election will likely take place in the second half of the year, probably between September and early November.
• The redrawing of constituency boundaries for the next election will make Labour’s path to a majority more difficult.
• Should Labour form the next government, its popular support could decline quickly given its limited capacity for public spending.