Strains of war are beginning to show in Russia

Significance

The invasion of Ukraine is causing strains in Russian society to show, with opposition to another mobilisation and rising appetite for peace talks. The economy is overheating in ways that pose dilemmas for policymakers. Some of these economic concerns, such as the labour shortage, limit the Kremlin’s ability to mobilise troops for the war.

Impacts

• The labour shortage will constrain wartime mobilisation, which is increasingly unpopular and leading to protests.
• Anti-war feelings are unlikely to play a significant role in the forthcoming presidential election, but may grow stronger later in the year.
• Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory will bring the reality of war closer to many Russians.