Sudan’s military may prove a powerful political force

Subject

The role of the military in Sudan's transition.

Significance

Sudan now has a nominally civilian-led transitional government, but the military forces that ousted former President Omar al-Bashir remain highly placed within those structures. In particular, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Lieutenant-General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Himedti’ of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have transitioned smoothly from being the head and deputy head, respectively, of the Transitional Military Council to the same roles in the new Sovereign Council, and look likely to wield considerable influence over Sudan’s transition.

Impacts

• Economic and political reform challenges, rather than security sector reform, will preoccupy the cabinet’s attention.
• Public dissatisfaction about lack of improvements will be directed mainly at the cabinet.
• While there will be some frictions and rivalries between SAF and the RSF, they are unlikely to turn against each other for now.